A new New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday has former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden 48% to 43%, representing the largest lead that Trump has ever held in either a New York Times/Siena or New York Times/CBS poll since he launched his first presidential campaign in 2015.
KEY FACTS
The poll also found that 47% of voters strongly disapprove of Biden’s handling of the presidency—higher than any other Times/Siena poll since his presidency began, the New York Times reported.
The New York Times highlighted several emerging weaknesses for Biden and Democrats, particularly an erosion in support among working class voters of color who did not attend college—Biden amassed 72% of those voters in 2020, but today’s poll showed Biden leading Trump only slightly in this category with 47% support.
The numbers paint a picture of an election led by two unpopular candidates—while Biden has only a 38% favorability rating, Trump’s approval numbers are also weak at 44%.
According to the New York Times, 19% of voters said they disapproved of both nominees, and Biden leads among those voters 45% to 33%, though the Times’ Nate Cohn notes that Biden led this category by a three-to-one margin in 2020.
It’s one of several recent polls that have flagged some weaknesses for Biden, with a HarrisX/Forbes poll showing Trump with a 46% to 42% edge—Real Clear Politics’ polling average shows Trump with a roughly 2% lead over Biden in a 2024 general election.
KEY BACKGROUND
The New York Times/Siena poll is considered the most reliable poll in the country, according to a ranking by FiveThirtyEight. The poll was conducted between Feb. 25 and 28 and gauged the opinions of 980 registered voters.
It comes as Biden is facing headwinds on multiple fronts: concerns about his old age, particularly after a controversial special counsel report questioned his memory earlier this month, as well as criticism from within his own party over his handling of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and mounting pressure from Republicans over his handling of a surge of migrants crossing the southern border.
Still, Trump has significant vulnerabilities, most notably dozens of criminal charges across four different cases that are still pending, a pair of damaging civil rulings making him liable for hundreds of millions of dollars in damages and a recent surge in campaign spending to cover legal costs.
A January Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found 53% of voters—including 23% of Republicans—in seven key swing states would rule out voting for Trump if he were convicted.
CONTRA
In a statement to Forbes, Biden campaign spokesperson Michael Tyler said: “Polling continues to be at odds with how Americans vote, and consistently overestimates Donald Trump while underestimating President Biden.”
He argued that in special elections and presidential primaries, voter behavior has suggested that Biden is outperforming while Trump is underforming. “Our campaign is ignoring the noise and running a strong campaign to win – just like we did in 2020,” Tyler said.
The campaign argues early primaries have shown strong support for the president—including amassing 60% of the vote total in New Hampshire, where he was not even listed on the ballot—and that Democrats running on Biden’s agenda have consistently performed well in special elections, 2023 off-year elections and 2022 midterms.
CHIEF CRITICS
Others echoed that view—Jim Messina, former President Barack Obama’s campaign manager in 2012, tweeted that Trump fared below polling numbers in the New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan primaries. “NYT chases headlines while ignoring what’s happening,” Messina wrote. “Best predictor of elections = how voters vote.”
I am Ryan Grandberry, I have done my bachelor’s in English literature, and further on I did my master’s in biotech. My most preferred genre of writing is health and biotech. I have been writing from the past 6 years about articles, web content, and blogs. In my career and education, I like to play along with work. I have also been a teacher in the past for 2 years.